The holiday season should help tablet demand surge sequentially after a dreadful few quarters, but year-over-year, things will continue to look gloomy for iPads, Microsoft Surfaces, and large-screen Androids alike from a global perspective.

That’s the trend both Digitimes Research and TrendForce forecast for Q4 2015, when shipments in the plunging market segment are to reportedly total 58.7 million units. A decent escalation from the sub-par 48.7M result posted between July and September, but only a fraction of the 76.1 mil tally in the October – December 2014 timeframe.

Like last year, and last quarter, and always and forever, Apple is tipped to dominate the tablet landscape, with around 14 million iPads sold, enough for a prevalent 23.9 percent market share. However, less than two million of those shall be accounted by the iPad Pro, and with an overall 2015 projection of 46.5M unit shipments, Cupertino should see a steep 27 percent drop from 2014.

Meanwhile, Samsung will remain a distant second, at a 14.5 percent stake, and the gargantuan Galaxy View may encounter stronger opposition from small form factor-favoring end users. So strong in fact that quarterly demand shall circle a pithy 100K copies.

Then, you’ll have Lenovo in third, Amazon in fourth, Asus in fifth, and Microsoft just out of the top five, according to Digitimes. But TrendForce expects the numbers four and six to swim against the tide, and report holiday season gains on the back of warm early reception for the $50 new Fire 7 and higher-end, costlier Surface Pro 4.

More than 3 million ultra-low-cost Fires will allegedly be shipped in Q4, and Amazon could post a 25 percent hike in yearly sales. Microsoft may do even better, and see its annual figures jump by 44 percent, to a still modest yet significant 3.8 million Surface units.

Sources: Digitimes, TechNews

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