Apple’s own private estimates have not been able to paint a good picture for HomePod sales: boxes are piling up in the back of store and consensus is looking a bit too rosy with estimates averaging to 7 million sales in calendar 2018.

Mark KGI Securities’s Ming-chi Kuo as an outlier.

The analyst has a new investment note out, which we’re seeing courtesy of 9to5Mac, that has set a target range of 2 million to 2.5 million this year. 1 million sales came from the first month of sales, but the $349 price tag of the HomePod seems to have cast a pall on this smart speaker where others stand well below $200.

Will there be a less expensive version? Prototypes have been, Kuo said, but there’s no evidence of anything indicating commercialization.

As for Siri, which has taken plenty of flack in recent days and is getting more human resources to remedy its problems, the analyst called the assistant non-essential to daily life.

France and Germany are supposed to launch the HomePod in the second quarter.

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