Apple is aiming to start shipping its very expensive iPhone X from November 3 onwards. It’s a full month into the company’s most profitable first fiscal quarter — known to us humans as “the fall” or “the holidays.”

As soon as investors saw the date, they sold on AAPL and were catching themselves revising shipping forecasts downwards.

KGI Securities Apple analyst Ming-chi Kuo put out two notes on Apple, both obtained by 9to5Mac. It’s the first notes written by the usually bullish Kuo since the September 12 event. One of them had a revision to his shipment forecast for the iPhone X and it was downwards: from 45-50 million units down to 40 million through the end of the year — averaging figures out, that’s a 16 percent slide.

Revenue forecasts for this quarter, though, remain at $49-52 billion. Even though 2-4 million iPhone X unit sales have been taken out of the third quarter, iPhone 8 demand could tide things over in the short term. The delay could also prevent cannibalization between the two grades. That said, if production rates continue to struggle along, supply of the X could be short all the way through the first half of next year.

Kuo also turned some attention to the Apple Watch Series 3 and admitted that he missed out on predicting calling and messaging functions, but worries that reported battery life might put off customers and prevent Apple from retaining its top spot in top-end sports watch sales.

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