Market analysts are reading tea leaves into Apple’s sales performance with its new products so late into the third quarter.
Gene Munster of Loup Ventures (formerly of Piper Jaffray) extracted shipping estimates from Apple’s site as of September 17 and found that whether customers opt for a Silver 64GB iPhone 8 on Sprint or a 128GB Gold iPhone 8 Plus with T-Mobile, listed lead times didn’t rise past 1 to 2 weeks. Many variants were also ready ship right on the September 22 start date. This also applies to shipments out to Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan and Mexico.
“Separately, we expect the iPhone 8 & 8 Plus will account for about 25-30% of iPhone units over the next year and expect the iPhone X to account for about 20% of units,” Munster wrote in a note obtained by 9to5Mac, “so the demand for the next iPhone cycle is more or less equally split between two models which would likely lowers(sic) lead times.”
In a typical year, Apple ships more than 200 million units, so seeing iPhone X orders edge either side of 40 million conforms with many current Street estimates.
KGI Securities analyst Ming-chi Kuo also wrote up a note and his findings agree with Munster’s. 9to5Mac relays from Kuo that 1-2 week shipping times at this point — where new iPhones would typically command a 3-6 week queue — signal that the iPhone X will get more attention.
The analyst also sees sales of the Apple Watch Series 3 Cellular going way out of proportion with his predictions: as rationed with the Bluetooth-only version, his initial center-weighted estimate of 35 percent has been replaced with 85 percent lit with LTE.
The rationale for these extra buys? People want something better.