iPhone X supercycle is still in KGI’s forecast

Market analysts are holding to their guns when it comes to a “supercycle” in iPhone sales for this model year. Owners of the iPhone 5 and iPhone 4 and other such old blocks are expected to upgrade and upgrade big: the iPhone X is supposed to lead the way with around half of all new iPhone sales dedicated to $999 and $1,149 pops.

So, what’s the feeling on the floor now that speculation has pushed iPhone X deliveries back day by day, week by week? Supplies are expected to be thin all throughout next year.

KGI Securities‘s Apple analyst Ming-chi Kuo thinks there’s still room for a bump. In a note obtained by MacRumors, he writes that it simply won’t come this year — it’ll come with next year’s iPhones.

“The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018,” Kuo said.

The TrueDepth camera in the Face ID suite has had some problems in production, but those issues should resolve by next year. That, combined with a more “competitive,” spec-varied product mix and a “longer sales period” for the products, and there should be a big rocket in iPhone shipments from around 215 million units this year to around 250 million next year.

Well, all that if Apple doesn’t decide to “innovate” and cause trouble for part-makers again.

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Jules Wang
Jules Wang is News Editor for Pocketnow and one of the hosts of the Pocketnow Weekly Podcast. He came onto the team in 2014 as an intern editing and producing videos and the podcast while he was studying journalism at Emerson College. He graduated the year after and entered into his current position at Pocketnow, full-time.