All Apple has to do is sell 80 million smartphones and make tens of billions of dollars to deliver a record earnings report for the holidays. Not hard, right?

Well, Cowen and Company analyst Karl Ackerman has written an investment note saying that his firm believes that consumers’ thirst for the iPhone X “has been below initial expectations as users appear to have gravitated toward the previous iPhone models.” No, it’s not for a lack of instant availability for a $999 iPhone. The iPhone SE is at the lowest price tier of $349 while the iPhone 7 Plus occupies the step-down flagship level of $669.

Even with a $50 increase in the base price, the whole range of  2017 models from iPhone 8 to iPhone X are selling at a “good” pace, but there are no signs of a so-called supercycle — an upsurge of upgrades from owners of iPhone models from 2015 or earlier — at least yet.

Ackerman, according to Bloomberg, is targeting 79 million iPhone shipments for what is currently Apple’s first fiscal quarter of 2018, compared to 78.3 million last year. For next quarter, he forecasts 56 million shipments to last year’s 51.2 million — the iPhone 6 brought in the peak of demand, though, with 61 million moves in the quarter for fiscal year 2015.

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