As Apple intends to set another record for quarterly iPhone shipments, it will find less help from the iPhone X than expected.

KGI Securities Apple analyst Ming-chi Kuo has had to further revise down his estimates for iPhone X sell-through in the holiday quarter. What was, at one point, a forecast of 40 million moves has converted to between 22 million and 24 million. A bad start to the device’s production run has left Apple playing catch-up and it looks like that game will last through 2018.

Given that Apple is hoping for at least 80 million total iPhone sales for what is its first quarter of fiscal 2018, the hope is that with older iPhones, sales of the iPhone 8 can make the pace up. So far, demand has favored the iPhone 8 Plus over the iPhone 8, but Kuo doesn’t give a sense of scale in his note, obtained by 9to5Mac.

Transitioning to post-New Year, KGI predicts that up to 60 percent of iPhone 8 production lines will transition over to iPhone X. Initial feedback in the Chinese market looks positive and a big Chinese New Year bump late-quarter could be “robust.”


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