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Shmisappointment: iPhone 8 supercycle will eventually happen, Morgan Stanley says

By Jules Wang July 18, 2017, 12:07 am

Morgan Stanley’s analyst on Apple, Katy Huberty, insists that a so-called “supercycle” of device upgrades will be coming for the iPhone 8, it’ll just come later than expected.

Her research, picked up by Business Insider, is based on the conclusion that the top-end iPhone, expected to cost more than $1,000 and top the iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus in prestige, will begin shipping in October rather than September. Some indicators have pushed that first ship date back to November.

“In light of the most meaningful feature and technology upgrades in iPhone’s history — including OLED displays, wireless charging, and 3D sensors for AR — we believe it’s reasonable to assume the new, higher-priced OLED iPhone ships in October rather than September,” Huberty wrote.


In any case, she believes that an influx of customers updating from older iPhones like the iPhone 6, iPhone 5 or even iPhone 4 series will come for Apple. It may not happen in the fourth fiscal quarter, the current one, but it’s bound to make for even bigger gains in the holiday and winter quarters.

Morgan Stanley is estimating that the iPhone 8 will make up to 62 percent of all iPhone shipments in fiscal Q1 from October. The ratio remains above the majority line at 56 percent for Q2, but then drops to 40 percent and 35 percent for the remaining quarters. The bank also expects average iPhone sales prices to jump to a record high $775 in Q1 — up from this past Q1’s record high of $694. More figures can be seen in the graph above.


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