The real debate over Apple isn’t about whether the iPhone 8 will be called the “iPhone 8,” but how well it will sell — sentiment among current iPhone owners has ranged from 40 percent in one survey to the upper teens in another. We don’t know how much these consumers know about what might be up with the iPhone 8, though, so there’s plenty of skewing to unpack here.

Financial firm Piper Jaffray has piled on with its own survey of more than 400 U.S. iPhone owners which found that only 16 percent of them expecting to upgrade to a new iPhone this upcoming season and 24 percent giving a shrug and a “maybe.” It’s a net negative compare from last year‘s 15 percent firm figure and 29 percent for maybe.

For both 2016 and 2017, about two-thirds of iPhone owners have a model two years ago or older.

Analyst Michael Olson told CNBC that Jaffray believes that the awareness “of potential for a more robust feature set with this year’s iPhone” has yet to peak. A lot of stage time during Apple’s September 12 hardware launch event will be split for the iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus for one segment and the iPhone 8 on the other. People will sooner or later learn about the features for each device — perhaps we’d rather see an “exit poll.”

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