The hope was, at least for the banks, that if shipping delays induced from supply-side constraints held for the premium iPhone X through to the first quarter that Apple could expect a “supercycle” of upgrades coming from the iPhone 5s, 6 and even 6s in the first quarter.
Well, even with record profits and sector sales leadership, iPhone sales were less than forecast. And with demand expected to tail off even further through winter, at least one major investment firm is calling off the idea of a supercycle happening.
Goldman Sachs analyst Rod Hall published a note, obtained by CNBC, entitled “Not so super cycle keeps looking to long-term growth in iPhone sales, but a poor showing for the iPhone X in the current quarter — Apple is reported to have cut parts orders for the $999 device — and even the next quarter.
“In particular, we see downside to consensus iPhone revenue forecasts in the June quarter,” Hall writes, “and believe shares are unlikely to outperform while risk of estimates revisions remains.”
There’s a brighter forecast for the fall and this holiday shopping season when three new iPhones are set to be introduced, but we’ve yet to touch MWC yet.