Who’s up for some fresh new Apple Watch sales estimates and short-term projections? Not from Cupertino, of course, where secrecy seconds only profit margin hunger as company policy.

But when it comes to third-party financial analysts, track records are rarely more dependable than Horace Dediu’s. The Asymco founder believes the first-gen “iWatch” could rack up a cool 21 million unit shipments and $8.4 billion revenue within its opening year, possibly setting the stage for an even better-selling second edition.

No point in comparing those figures to iPhone or iPad box-office feats, both past and present, as it’s starting to become clearer and clearer the Apple Watch is its own product, forging a unique path to glory and profitability.

Granted, many iZealots expected it to do better, but that’s because they didn’t understand how hard it currently is to turn a niche into a mainstream trend. Considering how bad the competition is doing, fitness trackers notwithstanding, it’s a great accomplishment if the Apple Watch indeed sold 3 million copies between April and June, then 4 million the next quarter, and an additional 8M during the holiday season would be outright mind-blowing.

Even in the notoriously slow January – March timeframe, Dediu predicts remarkable 6 mil volumes, which possibly signals a stretch of recent surprising deals at Target or Best Buy. Oh, and in case you’re wondering, the average selling price of the iPhone-compatible wearable piece is appraised at $400, so obviously, “low-cost” Sport configurations knocked it out of the park, while extravagant “Milanese Loops” and especially “Editions” flopped hard.

Source: Cult of Mac

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