The age of guaranteed monster box-office success for new iPhones, any new iPhones, regardless of upgrades, design alterations and pricing, might be behind us.

Granted, Apple still sold a boatload of iterative 7 and 7 Plus units these past nine months, easily eclipsing the popularity of Samsung’s best non-exploding 2016 Androids. But at the end of the day year, the iOS handheld family’s shipment numbers were down, from 231 to 211 million copies.

Cupertino can probably only hope to return to growth this year if the iPhone 8’s many production challenges are overcome by September, October or at least November, after which a so-called “supercycle” will kick in and drive 2018 sales figures to record-crushing heights.

Right? Wrong, at least in part, according to a trio of Deutsche Bank analysts who simply cannot see where rampant demand predicted by other market researchers could come from.

Yes, there are a lot of folks in possession of older iPhones, but even with a fancy OLED screen in tow, ultra-slim bezels, under-glass fingerprint recognition, face scanning technology and wireless charging (if they’re all implemented and executed properly), the 10th anniversary edition may lack the initial wow factor of the 6 and 6 Plus. Not to mention purportedly prohibitive retail costs.

Overall, these financial experts expect a marginal surge back to 2016 levels (230 million units or so) during FY-18 rather than a hefty rise to all-time high total scores of around 244 mil. After all, the global market is largely saturated, and Apple continues to struggle in key territories like China or India.

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