While many iFans might deem the aftermath of Apple’s latest earnings call a massive overreaction from people habituated to making easy money without taking risks, the signs that suggest the Cupertino juggernaut will not return to form anytime soon continue to pile up.
The iPhone 7 is still a little ways down the road, the OG Apple Watch can only maintain sales momentum with profit margin-shrinking discounts, and the iPhone SE simply doesn’t look like a mainstream blockbuster.
Thus, you shouldn’t be shocked to hear market researchers and “sources from Taiwan’s handset supply chain” are tipping off global iPhone shipments of between 41 and 43 million units for the April – June 2016 timeframe.
That would be down 4 to 6 million copies, or roughly 10 percent, compared to the same period of last year. Worse yet, 25 percent of the Q2 2016 number will likely be accounted by 4-inch models, including the ancient and affordable 5s, contributing to another grim decline, in average selling price (ASP), from no less than $690 in Q4 2015 to just $600.
As a direct consequence, the company’s quarterly revenues could fall by as much as 17 percent year-on-year, though you still shouldn’t feel pity for investors and stockholders, as Q2 2016 returns are expected to nonetheless exceed $40 billion.
Then, in Q3, iPhone shipments may jump back up, to 45 – 48 million, very close to last year’s Q3 mark, and finally, holiday season sales are to surpass 70M units for a grand 2016 total of 210 to 220 million. Which sounds impressive, but would actually represent an unprecedented yearly drop of 5 to 10 percent. Unless the iPhone 7 attracts way more attention than currently predicted, with bigger upgrades than recently rumored, of course.