Android Wear tipped to grow at crazy pace through 2020, but Apple Watch will reign supreme

It’s no big secret Apple got off to a flying start at the global smartwatch box-office, at least compared to its direct rivals, and industry estimates suggested at one point the “iWatch” may have gobbled up as much as two thirds of the market last year.

That’s a remarkable feat by any standards, especially given the lack of availability during 2015’s first three or four months, and Samsung, Pebble or Motorola’s pre-existing intelligent timepiece experience.

But while IDC (the International Data Corporation) forecasts the Apple Watch will retain its dominance in 2016 and beyond, the gap to second place in the platform rankings is expected to gradually shrink. A full-on sequel could only see daylight in the latter stages of the year, and so “the early part of 2016” should see “some slowdown” in Apple Watch demand.

Overall, Cupertino might sell roughly 14 million watchOS devices in 2016, enough to secure it 49.4 percent market share. Android Wear will once again be the silver medalist, with a projected 6.1 million unit shipments and 21.4 percent slice of the pie, both numbers predicted to surge to way healthier 28.8 million and 35 percent scores by 2020.

Smartwatch OS predictions

Of course, the long-term forecast game is always hazardous, as there’s really no way to know how Apple Watches will evolve and transform. IDC clearly doesn’t expect major breakthroughs or innovations, with 2020 share tipped to decline to 37.6 percent, and sales likely growing to just 31 million copies.

A host of other smartwatch players should stay in the game, but mostly battle for scraps, with Tizen share projected at 11.3 percent in 2016 and a measly 6.6 four years later, and Pebble shipments exhibiting a worrisome stagnation trend, sitting at 2 million now and 2.2 in 2020.

Source: Business Wire

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About The Author
Adrian Diaconescu
Adrian has had an insatiable passion for writing since he was in school and found himself writing philosophical essays about the meaning of life and the differences between light and dark beer. Later, he realized this was pretty much his only marketable skill, so he first created a personal blog (in Romanian) and then discovered his true calling, which is writing about all things tech (in English).