Who will get the privilege of owning an iPhone X first? Who will ever get to own one before they give up on their desires? Is there a mercy killing on the way for Apple’s share price?

Christopher Caso of high street firm Raymond James is predicting in a note, obtained by Barron’s, that production has yet to start on the iPhone X. The claim goes against what KGI Securities analyst Ming-chi Kuo has said about even limited production going ahead.

After visiting with supply chain “players” across multiple verticals, he writes that Apple’s orders to its assembly and parts contractors have only “firmed up as recently as last week,” leaving a ramp-up to mid-October. That line grates against assumptions about hiked monthly revenue reports from Apple’s components suppliers, but could be related to what’s been said as the trickiest part to nail down: OLED displays from Samsung.

“That production start is about a month later when compared to expectations a month ago, and about 2 months later than expectations at the end of June,” Caso notes.

Research and development issues were painfully apparent through leaks throughout the summer, but it isn’t clear why, if the claims presented are true, Apple didn’t pull the trigger on mass production until now. The holiday season could prove extremely sore for iPhone X supply.

The iPhone X is set for pre-orders from October 27 and first shipments are supposed to happen on November 3.

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