More banks agree on supercycle for glamorous iPhone 8
New reports from Guggenheim’s Robert Cihra and J.P. Morgan’s Rod Hill are adding to market expectations for an iPhone 8 to cost around $1,000, but it isn’t clear when shipments will actually take off.
The current target range that the high street has put out would land first shipments between October and November. Cihra’s note, obtained by AppleInsider, believes that the delay will be “short-lived” anyhow and demand will follow along — at least 280 million of an estimated 700 million iPhones out in use right now are aged over two years, prime upgrade territory. Prices for this iPhone 8 with an OLED display and other substantive goodies may start as high as $1,050 — besting the expected iPhone 7s‘s base price by up to $400.
Rod Hall, however, believes that the idea of a delay is hogwash at this point. While the J.P. Morgan analyst does believe that production will need time to get up to speed with new parts like a 3D scanner coming into play, we may realistically end up seeing what we saw when the iPhone 7 launched: very limited initial stock with some easing in the subsequent months. The forecast? 2 million units as opposed to an earlier bet of 9 million.
…we do not believe that Apple’s production schedule is still changing materially with most current delay reports simply dated reverberations of decisions Apple made back in the spring. We expect a small amount of late September EMS output for the Pro model and then ramping production through October with target output levels achieved in late October/early November…
Hill, revising an underestimation in production costs, is forecasting a base model price of $1,100. The price could help stem demand and give Apple room to slowly drop prices for a model that’s expected to last two years.